As the COVID-19 situation changes on a daily basis, the total impact to the insurance and reinsurance markets remains unknown, and Guy Carpenter is advising clients in the space on how to best adapt to the circumstances. The (re)insurance industry, policyholders and governments throughout the world must come together on an approach that offers relief to those who need it now and develop a plan to implement mitigation strategies and a response mechanism for future pandemic events.
Recent analysis from Guy Carpenter-affiliate Oliver Wyman shows that the fourth quarter of 2021 is likely the earliest we can get close to “back to normal” in the United States. Given this timing, companies must consider if what has been working for the past seven months can be sustained for the next 12 to 15 months and what they may need to adjust, according to Ugur Koyluoglu, Partner and Vice Chairman, Financial Services Americas, Helen Leis, Partner, Health and Life Sciences, Bruce Hamory, MD, Chief Medical Officer and Partner, Health and Life Sciences and Terry Stone, Managing Partner, Health and Life Sciences.
The key to “getting back to normal” is cumulative immunity, which has several dimensions that need to be considered: the percentage of the population that has already been infected and has protective immunity, and the percentage of the population that is either naturally immune to infection or has been effectively vaccinated. We need enough cumulative immunity present in the population to stop the virus from spreading.
The Long Haul to Normalcy provides four possible scenarios on when the appropriate threshold immunity can be achieved and shares the key levers that impact timing and the likelihood of success – both hindrances and accelerants. The research also offers business leaders three “no regret” moves to aid their planning and response efforts.
Guy Carpenter and the broader reinsurance industry are at the forefront of conversations to create a forward-looking solution for pandemic risk in conjunction with policyholders, insurance markets and key policymakers.