Exceptional Drought Conditions Enhance Wildfire Risk for Western U.S. and Canada: Fire activity increased significantly across the West during June. Most of the fire activity was in the Southwest, Colorado, Utah and Montana through mid-June, coincident with the area of most extreme drought. New and large fires were reported in California and Oregon as record heat set in in the Pacific Northwest.
- Active Atlantic anticipated: Across all forecast entities spanning academia, government and private sector, there is unanimous consent the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will feature average to above average named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and storm days.
- Factors driving active Atlantic forecast include above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and west Pacific regions, as well as a forecasted transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral conditions.
- Ramifications for Atlantic basin landfalls: The ratio of hurricane landfalls to basin activity varies considerably from year to year, and depends strongly on steering currents. Weather prediction for any event generally loses skill beyond a 7-10 day forecast lead.
- West Pacific typhoon expectations: Through the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre relationship with the City University of Hong Kong, the 2021 West Pacific forecast indicates above average activity. However, the landfalling numbers across the region vary, with above average activity most likely for South Mainland China and Vietnam.
Going Beyond Investments — The Role of Commercial Underwriting in the Climate Transition: The financial services industry is an accelerator in the transition to net-zero targets, for example, with the focus on the investment portfolios of institutional investors and bank lending. Progress includes the 95 percent European bank lending having a net-zero ambition aligned with the Paris Agreement. Some 70 percent of European traded equity is managed by asset managers with a net-zero ambition.
Video; Dean Klisura, President, Guy Carpenter, On the Reinsurance Landscape: Guy Carpenter President, Dean Klisura, speaks with The Insurer on a wide-ranging set of topics that include the Changing Nature of Risk, the COVID-19 excess of loss claims arena, broker consolidation and race for talent, public-private structures for systemic cyber, future pandemic (re)insurance solutions and the insurance-linked securities renaissance.
2021 Western North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Briefing: Guy Carpenter published the annual briefing on the 2021 Western North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone season. According to the briefing, the number of tropical cyclones forecast to form between April 1 and September 30 is above normal.
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Video; Peter Hearn – Navigating the Changing Nature of Risk – Opportunities and Reinsurance Support: Peter Hearn, CEO, Guy Carpenter, talks to Asia Insurance Review about the impact the changing risk landscape will have on the insurance industry – how the industry should respond to these changes – and how reinsurance can support these new opportunities. Reinsurance supports insurance carriers in many dimensions – it is a flexible capital tool, it supports growth, and it manages volatility.