In the East Pacific Basin, Hurricane Lorena affected the Pacific Coast of Mexico south of Puerto Vallarta before approaching the Baja California Peninsula as a category-1 hurricane over the weekend. Initial media reports indicate some flooded homes and roadways along with some property damage due to wind for affected areas. After the storm moved inland and dissipated, it ... Continue Reading »
hurricane
Weather Sentinel: Ongoing Tropical Activity – Update
Tropical activity continues for the North Atlantic and East Pacific Basins. A few features continue to pose an active threat for property. Tropical Storm Lorena is on a track very close to the Pacific Coast of Mexico, after bringing hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall. Meanwhile the remnants of Imelda continue to draw significant moisture onshore over the northwestern Gulf ... Continue Reading »
Do Real-Time Event Loss Estimates Inform Model Fitness? Part III: Historical Event Reconstruction and Model Fitness
It takes time to clarify the hazard measurements at locations with instruments. Hurricane Michael hit Florida on October 10, 2018 as a Category 4 event. Six months later, on April 19, 2019, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Michael to Category 5 because reanalysis showed that its landfall wind speed was 160 MPH instead of 155 MPH. ... Continue Reading »
Weather Sentinel: Escalating Tropical Activity – Bermuda, Mexico, Texas, Caribbean
Several tropical storms or hurricanes have developed in recent days to pose a potential threat to property, affecting locations in Bermuda, Mexico and the northwestern Gulf. Hurricane Humberto is expected by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to make close approach to Bermuda, with the threat of tropical storm and potentially hurricane conditions. In the meantime Tropical ... Continue Reading »
Do Real-Time Event Loss Estimates Inform Model Fitness? Part I
Catastrophe model vendors release tools to support assessment of portfolio losses following significant industry events. Guy Carpenter’s general observation is that there are more underestimations than over estimations of events, globally. In this series, we explore this bias and address its relationship to model fitness, according to Imelda Powers, Senior Cat Management A ... Continue Reading »
CAT-i Bulletin: Typhoon Faxai
In the Northwest Pacific Basin, Typhoon Faxai made landfall on September 9 around 5 AM local time near the city of Chiba in the Greater Tokyo Area, after crossing the Tokyo Bay as a category-2. Among the strongest typhoons to hit the Greater Tokyo Area in recorded history, Faxai was accompanied by record wind gusts from multiple weather stations in the affected region. Damaging ... Continue Reading »
CAT-i Bulletin: Hurricane Dorian
Hurricane Dorian was a long-lived and historic storm that rendered impacts from the Caribbean to Atlantic Canada between August 24 and September 7. It is evident from media reports that the most severe impacts occurred in the northwestern Bahamas where complete destruction of property and infrastructure was reported in Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands. The full scope and severity ... Continue Reading »
Weather Sentinel: Hurricane Dorian Passing Outer Banks – Weekend Atlantic Canada Threat
Hurricane Dorian continued to move along the coast of the Carolinas over the last 24 hours, bringing heavy rainfall, storm surge and tropical storm to hurricane conditions for eastern portions of the Carolinas. Considerable tornado activity was also reported, with substantial damage to certain areas evident from initial media reports. Landfall occurred this morning as a ... Continue Reading »
Weather Sentinel: Dorian Intensifies towards the Carolinas
Dorian regained major category 3 strength overnight as it tracks perilously close, if not over, the coast of the Carolinas this evening. If Dorian retains this strength to the coast, it will be the first category 3 hurricane to make landfall in the Carolinas since Fran in 1996. Peak perils of risk that carry high certainty include dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall i ... Continue Reading »
Weather Sentinel: Dorian Impacts Felt in the United States
Hurricane Dorian began a slow northwesterly track off of Grand Bahama Island on Tuesday afternoon, on a path paralleling the Florida Atlantic coastline. Hurricane force winds are remaining offshore of Florida, however storm surge and wave action along the coastline are causing significant beach erosion and flooding. The forecast for Dorian remains extremely challenging for ... Continue Reading »
