Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts covering insights on modeling. A Risk Overview of Wildfire: Today, the frequency and severity of wildfires are garnering greater attention - not only from the media, but also from (re)insurers, catastrophe modelers, mitigation experts and other invested parties. Read the article >> Understanding Flood Risk in Malaysia ... Continue Reading »
Models
Flood Risk Challenges in Asia
Flood is one of the most significant natural catastrophe perils, globally accounting for nearly 40 percent of all catastrophe events. In 2017, floods accounted for nearly half of the natural catastrophe events and 65 percent of natural catastrophe deaths in the world - two thirds of the deaths occurring in Asia. According to the Lloyd's City Risk Index, which examines flood ... Continue Reading »
Methodological Considerations in the Statistical Modeling of Catastrophe Bond Prices
John Major, Director of Actuarial Research Contact John Major has authored an article that aims to help actuaries, financial analysts, statisticians, data scientists and their clients better investigate how property catastrophe risk, and particularly catastrophe bonds, are priced. As in any technical discipline, statistical modeling has its customs, templates and default ... Continue Reading »
GC Capital Ideas Covers Modeling Developments
GC Capital Ideas presents a review of our recent stories covering modeling for various perils. ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part IV
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact Valuation Assumptions There is no database of agreed property, contents or business interruption valuations among vendors or insurers. Any user's particular valuation may come from databases of property prices, or rebuild values from claims adjusters and building surveyors. If the model's assumed valuations are ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part III
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact If resources permit, an insurer may carry out additional, micro level model suitability analyses - including a review of model hazards and vulnerabilities using the latest scientific literature and engineering studies. Guy Carpenter's Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® framework is designed to guide users through such ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part II
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact Model Suitability Analysis There is a repertoire of tests, at both the macro and micro levels, to evaluate the merits of a CAT model. Regardless of resources, insurers should analyze how each test's result informs their view of risk. Here we review the macro level. ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part I
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs ... Continue Reading »
Flood Risk Challenges in Asia – GC@SIRC Commentary
Mark Weatherhead, Head of Model Development, International Contact Asia is particularly prone to flooding because of three factors: hydrology, population density and mitigation rate To improve loss assessments, hazard data should be combined with other data types, such as probabilistic event sets and defense information Guy Carpenter has made a significant investment in ... Continue Reading »
Data and Analytics Support Innovations in Flood Risk Management – GC@BB Commentary
Elizabeth Cleary, Managing Director Contact Increased computing power is fueling innovative solutions for flood underwriting Insurers are using technology to communicate a homeowner’s flood risk with mobile apps Guy Carpenter works extensively with most commercial vendor flood models ... Continue Reading »
