Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts covering insights on modeling. Terror: The Role of Technology and Analytics: Terrorism, political violence and other malicious acts differ from other insurable perils in that they are dynamic and adaptive; there is human intent driving the probability and willing the impacts to change. Historic incidents show past trends, but ... Continue Reading »
Models
Wildfire Risk and Underwriting Strategy
In 2018, California suffered its most costly and deadly fire season to date. The year’s costliest insured loss event was California’s Camp Fire at USD 12 billion — also the most destructive fire in the state’s history. Additionally in 2018, over 100 people perished in wildfires in Greece; British Columbia, Canada, suffered its worst wildfire season in history; in Australia, bush ... Continue Reading »
Parametric Risk Transfer – When Does It Make Sense?
Parametric insurance provides cover for predetermined catastrophic natural events such as an earthquake exceeding a certain magnitude, a hurricane producing a certain wind speed at a location, or a flood reaching into certain areas. The insured buys a predefined amount of protection that will pay out based on predefined terms regardless of the actual loss incurred. Parametric ... Continue Reading »
Modeling Insights
Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts covering insights on modeling. A Risk Overview of Wildfire: Today, the frequency and severity of wildfires are garnering greater attention - not only from the media, but also from (re)insurers, catastrophe modelers, mitigation experts and other invested parties. Read the article >> Understanding Flood Risk in Malaysia ... Continue Reading »
Flood Risk Challenges in Asia
Flood is one of the most significant natural catastrophe perils, globally accounting for nearly 40 percent of all catastrophe events. In 2017, floods accounted for nearly half of the natural catastrophe events and 65 percent of natural catastrophe deaths in the world - two thirds of the deaths occurring in Asia. According to the Lloyd's City Risk Index, which examines flood ... Continue Reading »
Methodological Considerations in the Statistical Modeling of Catastrophe Bond Prices
John Major, Director of Actuarial Research Contact John Major has authored an article that aims to help actuaries, financial analysts, statisticians, data scientists and their clients better investigate how property catastrophe risk, and particularly catastrophe bonds, are priced. As in any technical discipline, statistical modeling has its customs, templates and default ... Continue Reading »
GC Capital Ideas Covers Modeling Developments
GC Capital Ideas presents a review of our recent stories covering modeling for various perils. ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part IV
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact Valuation Assumptions There is no database of agreed property, contents or business interruption valuations among vendors or insurers. Any user's particular valuation may come from databases of property prices, or rebuild values from claims adjusters and building surveyors. If the model's assumed valuations are ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part III
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact If resources permit, an insurer may carry out additional, micro level model suitability analyses - including a review of model hazards and vulnerabilities using the latest scientific literature and engineering studies. Guy Carpenter's Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® framework is designed to guide users through such ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part II
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact Model Suitability Analysis There is a repertoire of tests, at both the macro and micro levels, to evaluate the merits of a CAT model. Regardless of resources, insurers should analyze how each test's result informs their view of risk. Here we review the macro level. ... Continue Reading »
