It takes time to clarify the hazard measurements at locations with instruments. Hurricane Michael hit Florida on October 10, 2018 as a Category 4 event. Six months later, on April 19, 2019, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Michael to Category 5 because reanalysis showed that its landfall wind speed was 160 MPH instead of 155 MPH. ... Continue Reading »
Powers (Imelda)
Do Real-Time Event Loss Estimates Inform Model Fitness? Part II: Shortcomings of Real-Time Event Responses
While catastrophe model vendors’ focus is to build deterministic and probabilistic models, they have also provided inputs for real-time event loss estimates for many years. Model vendors usually release their loss estimate tools within one or two weeks of an event’s occurrence. At that time, the hazard parameters are sparse, unverified and conflicting over multiple sources, acc ... Continue Reading »
Do Real-Time Event Loss Estimates Inform Model Fitness? Part I
Catastrophe model vendors release tools to support assessment of portfolio losses following significant industry events. Guy Carpenter’s general observation is that there are more underestimations than over estimations of events, globally. In this series, we explore this bias and address its relationship to model fitness, according to Imelda Powers, Senior Cat Management A ... Continue Reading »
GC Capital Ideas Covers Modeling Developments
GC Capital Ideas presents a review of our recent stories covering modeling for various perils. ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part IV
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact Valuation Assumptions There is no database of agreed property, contents or business interruption valuations among vendors or insurers. Any user's particular valuation may come from databases of property prices, or rebuild values from claims adjusters and building surveyors. If the model's assumed valuations are ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part III
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact If resources permit, an insurer may carry out additional, micro level model suitability analyses - including a review of model hazards and vulnerabilities using the latest scientific literature and engineering studies. Guy Carpenter's Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® framework is designed to guide users through such ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part II
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact Model Suitability Analysis There is a repertoire of tests, at both the macro and micro levels, to evaluate the merits of a CAT model. Regardless of resources, insurers should analyze how each test's result informs their view of risk. Here we review the macro level. ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part I
Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler Contact Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs ... Continue Reading »
Managing Catastrophe Model Change
Imelda Powers, Senior Cat Management Advisor, Asia Pacific, Global Strategic Advisory Contact Incorporating new hazard and claims insights can improve the estimates derived from catastrophe models. By re-analyzing historical events using the latest scientific methods or refining claims with more granular geographical and line of business breakdowns, we can update models with ... Continue Reading »
Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure
Here we bring together our recent multi-part series on model resilience by Guy Carpenter's Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler, Imelda Powers. Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a ... Continue Reading »
